Mud-Walled Utopia in a Growing Desert

This project plans to forecast the future of 10,000 towns and cities across the globe -- as though they have survived climate change and social discord and gone on to flourish anew. Today, we highlight the future of Ordos City in China.

The Ordos are a Mongol ethnic group who have lived for centuries on the Ordos Plain in what is now northern China. Today, they number around one hundred thousand people spread across three provinces. For generations, the Ordos Plain was fertile grassland, crisscrossed by rivers and streams. It provided rich pasture for farming and herding and supported a stable rural way of life. Within a single generation, however, much of this prairie turned into desert.

In the late twentieth century, when Chinese authorities intensified control over the region, large-scale development followed. Vegetation was cleared, water resources were heavily overextracted, and vast coal-mining operations were established. As a result, the land was stripped bare, the rivers shrank, and the once-productive grasslands became dry and desolate.

At first, the coal industry brought significant economic success. The profits funded the rapid construction of a brand-new urban center: Ordos City. Built from scratch in the late twentieth century, the city features high-rise towers, wide boulevards, shopping malls, and luxury apartments. It was designed to house one million residents. Yet today, only about ten thousand workers live there. The infrastructure is complete, but the population never arrived.

Government officials continue to insist that people will eventually move in. Meanwhile, they encourage Ordos farmers and villagers—whose lands have been damaged by desertification—to relocate to the new city. For most rural families, however, rents are unaffordable, and urban life offers no land for growing food. As a result, many choose to remain in their struggling villages.

Even so, development continues. New power plants are built, highways stretch across the plain, and the city expands despite its emptiness. Over time, when the coal reserves are exhausted, the government may quietly withdraw support. No formal announcement would be necessary; the signs would be obvious. As winter settles over the empty streets, Ordos City risks becoming a true ghost town.

When that moment comes, the surrounding Ordos communities may hesitate only briefly before moving into the abandoned buildings and reclaiming the city for themselves.

Ordos City in the 22nd Century

By 2121, not only have the Ordos people made the abandoned city their home, they build a great mud-clay wall around the city. They tell outsiders that it’s to keep the desert at bay, but everybody knows it’s really to keep the Chinese government out.