The Future of Auckland, New Zealand -- a "Fictional" Forecast

Introducing the Literary Method of Urban Design

This urban futures project employs numerous techniques to forecast multitudinous urban settings. For example, it utilizes extrapolations from historical patterns and the anticipated role of new technologies. Another technique it employs is the Literary Method of Urban Design which uses literary works to predict likely urban scenarios of the future.

The Literary Method of Urban Design is a creative framework that uses literature as a lens through which to imagine the future of cities. Rather than relying solely on demographic projections or technical planning models, it draws upon narrative, metaphor, and theme to generate speculative urban scenarios. The method unfolds in three core steps. First, a literary work is selected. Second, a city is chosen. Third, the themes, symbols, and narrative tensions of the literary work are applied to create a graphic scenario for the future of that city.

A fourth, supplementary step concerns representation: how the resulting vision is communicated to an audience. This may take the form of architectural plans, urban maps, scenario drawings, or—as in this paper—an integrated visual and textual narrative.

See this movie for an "edu-tainment" style introduction to the Literary Method of Urban Design....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuzZoIozHZw

In previous applications, this Literary Method of Urban Design has been used to explore urban futures across Europe (see here, for example) and Asia (see here, for example). The resulting scenario artworks have been exhibited internationally, all aiming to demonstrate how literature can function not only as cultural reflection but as a generative design tool for envisioning long-term urban transformation. For this blogpost, one case study city from New Zealand (i.e.: Auckland) is paired with one specific New Zealand literary work (that being Man Alone by John Mulgan).

Literary Context: Man Alone and Its Narrative World

John Mulgan’s Man Alone, published in 1939, is widely regarded as one of New Zealand’s defining twentieth-century novels. Set during the interwar years and the Great Depression, it follows the psychological and physical journey of an English migrant, Johnson, whose war trauma and social dislocation mirror the unsettled character of a young settler nation. The novel moves between city and countryside, exploring themes of isolation, economic precarity, masculine identity, violence, and the uneasy promise of opportunity in a colonial society. Its spare prose and stark landscapes reflect both the emotional barrenness of its protagonist and the rawness of New Zealand itself during a turbulent historical moment.

A Vision of Auckland's Future as Inspired by John Mulgan’s Man Alone

New Zealand's economic history is tied to sheep and sheep-farming. Indeed, alongside military force and assertive legal structures, British colonial expansion across the globe to Australasia depended heavily upon pastoral agriculture (see our side project about this here). In New Zealand especially, introduced breeds such as Merino and Romney thrived once vast tracts of forest were cleared, reshaping both the ecology and the economy of the land. This case study alludes to this history.

Man Alone, first published in 1939, follows Johnson, an Englishman psychologically scarred by the First World War who drifts across the world and eventually arrives in Auckland. Though New Zealand had been regarded as a land of opportunity, Johnson reaches its shores just as the Great Depression grips the country. At first he finds work, but economic decline soon leaves him unemployed, and he becomes entangled in the Auckland riots of 1932. During one confrontation he strikes a police officer in self-defense.

Like many of the rioters, Johnson finds himself moneyless and without clear purpose. Although he sympathizes with their grievances, their violence revives memories of the Great War and deepens his longing for a quieter, more stable life. Seeking distance from urban unrest, he travels to the countryside to work as a shepherd.

In this pastoral setting, sheep become powerful symbols. They represent economic security, both for the nation and for Johnson personally. At the same time, they embody the burdens of social existence, since tending them requires constant vigilance and ties one to a fixed place.

Johnson briefly experiences fellowship among rural workers, yet isolation and restlessness continue to haunt him. These tensions culminate in an affair with his employer’s wife. When confronted violently by his employer, Johnson kills the man in self-defense and is forced to flee.

He retreats into the rugged hills of New Zealand’s North Island, living as a fugitive in remote wilderness. The landscape is rendered vividly, emphasizing both his solitude and his determination to endure. Ultimately, Johnson recognizes that he cannot remain hidden forever. He resolves to leave the country that was meant to offer him refuge.

The novel closes with Johnson sailing to Europe to join those fighting in the Spanish Civil War. Concluding that his life will be defined by struggle, he seeks solidarity with others engaged in what he sees as a broader fight for freedom.

Although the title Man Alone emphasizes individual isolation, it was not the author’s preferred title. He had intended to call the novel Talking of War, which would have more explicitly connected Johnson’s wartime trauma with the renewed threat of global conflict in the late 1930s. The published title, however, fixed the image of solitary endurance in the public imagination.

The novel itself was nearly lost during the Second World War when bombing destroyed the London warehouse holding most of its copies. It was later republished in New Zealand, gaining recognition as a foundational national text. Meanwhile, Mulgan himself served in the Mediterranean during the war and died in Cairo in 1945, shortly before its end.

If Man Alone suggests that war creates unexpected forms of fellowship among otherwise isolated individuals, we might imagine the future of Auckland as engaged in a different kind of war—not against another nation, but against the advancing threat of climate catastrophe.

In Man Alone, shepherding, sheep, and wool symbolize security and stability. This symbolism can be reinterpreted for a future Auckland.

The Future of Auckland (with woolly architecture) -- by the Urban Futures team

In such a scenario, sheep’s wool becomes a central material of urban resilience. Used as roofing and insulation, wool provides thermal stability to homes across the city. Thick wool insulation retains warmth in winter, reducing reliance on fossil-fueled heating. In summer, it moderates indoor temperatures, diminishing the need for energy-intensive air conditioning.

Elsewhere in the world, campaigns for comprehensive home insulation have framed such measures as urgent climate action, arguing that retrofitting buildings is a direct and practical means of reducing carbon emissions.

In the urban landscapes of future Auckland, sheep graze quietly as organic lawn mowers, trimming grass and naturally fertilizing public spaces. Their wool insulates homes, schools, and civic buildings. What once symbolized colonial extraction and rural labor becomes a material of collective defense.

Thus, through the lens of Man Alone, Auckland’s future is reframed not as a story of solitary struggle, but as one of shared resilience. The city, like Johnson, confronts hardship. Yet unlike Johnson, it need not face it alone.